Seeking A Few Good Calls

6/1/2009


Investors who avoid the telecom sector may be missing out.

To be sure, with the global economy weak and earnings under pressure, now is not the time to load up on the group. Still, volatility has created opportunities in select telecom names. Keep an eye on the big picture, as it provides insight on where to find opportunities.

The good
Blue chip, diversified telecom-service providers are often viewed as relatively safe havens because of their modest sensitivity to economic conditions.

Many telecom stocks sell at reasonable valuations and boast attractive dividend yields. The average dividend-paying stock in the S&P 1500 Index yields 3.1%, versus 5.5% for the average telecom stock.

Many telecom firms generate fairly steady revenue and cash flow. Firms have aggressively trimmed costs to boost profit margins.

New economic-stimulus packages could help jump-start growth. The government has set aside about $7.2 billion for spending on high-speed broadband infrastructure.

The bad
The near-term profit outlook is dismal. Of the 49 telecom-services and telecom-equipment companies in the S&P 1500 Index, 30 are expected to report lower per-share earnings in the current fiscal year.

Many telecom companies carry lots of debt and were hit hard by the credit crunch.

An uncertain outlook for capital spending has reduced visibility on orders and backlogs. Meanwhile, increased regulation could boost competition and weigh on sales.

Our advice
The wireless area offers the best opportunities in the telecom sector, for at least three reasons. First, the industry’s underlying growth prospects are bright, reflecting steady expansion into underpenetrated regions and foreign markets. Second, wireless service has become more of a staple than a discretionary expense and should prove less sensitive to volatile consumer-spending trends. Third, the trend of replacing land lines with wireless service should continue. The three stocks reviewed below offer attractive ways to cash in on wireless.

NII Holdings ($19; NIHD), a provider of mobile-communications services to business customers in Latin America, has carved out an attractive niche. While currency depreciation has hampered revenue growth, the near-term outlook remains intact, reflecting expansion in Brazil. The company is showing solid user growth, adding more than 266,000 net subscribers in the March quarter. NII is a Focus List Buy.


Qualcomm ($43; QCOM), capitalizing on the aggressive rollout of next-generation networks, is a dominant player among makers of wireless equipment. The company sells its microchips for use in mobile phones and wireless infrastructure around the world. Sizable investments in research and development should spark product growth and preserve Qualcomm’s technology leadership, allowing the company to build market share. Qualcomm is a Long-Term Buy.


Syniverse Technologies ($15; SVR), a leading provider of equipment and services to wireless-telecom providers, is benefiting from increased data and messaging traffic. The company helps manage and connect disparate voice and data systems for more than 650 communications companies, up from 388 at the end of 2006. A growing client list, expanding international presence, and healthy cash flow should sustain growth. Syniverse is rated Best Buy in Upside, a sister publication of the Forecasts that focuses on small stocks.

TELECOM-RELATED STOCKS WE FOLLOW
The Forecasts monitors 10 telecom-related stocks, while our sister publication Upside recommends two.
———— Quadrix Scores * ————
—— Current Year ——
Company (Price; Ticker)
Div.
($)
Yield
(%)
52-Wk.
Price
Range
($)
Fin'l
Str.
Earns
Ests.
Perfor-
mance
Overall
Est.
EPS
($)
EPS
Chg.
(%)
Est.
P/E
Telecom
Industry
Advice
AT&T ($25; T)
1.64
6.7
41
-
21
81
58
19
74
2.06
-4.9
12
Integrated
Neutral
Cisco Systems
($18; CSCO)
0.00
0.0
28
-
14
95
87
55
86
1.32
-15.6
14
Equipment
Neutral
Corning ($15; GLW)
0.20
1.4
28
-
7
90
94
67
82
0.87
-43.5
17
Equipment
Neutral
Harris ($32; HRS)
0.80
2.5
67
-
27
65
24
12
83
3.92
15.7
8
Equipment
Neutral
Motorola ($6; MOT)
0.00
0.0
11
-
3
5
92
86
11
(0.09)
NM
NM
Equipment
Underperf.
NII Holdings
($19; NIHD)
0.00
0.0
57
-
10
67
48
27
90
1.95
-9.1
10
Wireless
Focus Buy
Qualcomm
($43; QCOM)
0.68
1.6
57
-
28
94
66
74
62
1.68
-25.1
26
Equipment
LT Buy
Qwest Commun.
($4; Q)
0.32
7.4
5
-
2
45
89
86
85
0.37
-6.2
12
Integrated
Neutral
Sprint Nextel ($5; S)
0.00
0.0
10
-
1
34
98
93
46
(0.10)
NM
NM
Wireless
Neutral
Syniverse
($15; SVR)
0.00
0.0
22
-
7
75
42
57
95
1.51
-9.8
10
Wireless
Upside Buy
TeleCom. Systems
($8; TSYS)
0.00
0.0
11
-
4
83
87
41
95
0.75
21.3
10
Wireless
Upside Buy
Verizon Commun.
($30; VZ)
1.84
6.2
40
-
23
75
73
40
77
2.53
-0.5
12
Integrated
Neutral
* Quadrix scores are percentile ranks, with 100 the best.

 


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